Pi News –
Janata Dal United president Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the chief minister for the ninth time, but Nitish Kumar, who first became the Chief Minister in 2005, seems to be at his weakest point after 18 years. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be in full swing and for the first time wants to do something on its own. In such a situation, one wonders how long this Nitish government will last.
It is believed that Nitish Kumar is unlikely to remain the Prime Minister after the 2025 assembly elections, but before that the question is should Nitish Kumar vacate the throne only after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? After the Lok Sabha elections, it will be more than a year before the assembly elections in Bihar. So, will the Bharatiya Janata Party want to withdraw its support for Nitish Kumar at that time and go for fresh elections? Or will it force Nitish Kumar to become the prime minister with the support of JDU in the Bharatiya Janata Party leader NDA government?
Nitish Kumar, who won the 2020 assembly elections with the Bharatiya Janata Party, has said that he does not want to be the Prime Minister and suggested that he would be the Prime Minister if the BJP wanted. Despite being the largest party, the BJP kept its promise and allowed Nitish Kumar to continue as Prime Minister. Then came August 9, 2022 and Nitish Kumar left the BJP and formed the government in a grand alliance with the RJD. This alliance lasted for 17 months and on 28 January 2024, Nitish Kumar again formed the government with the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been heavily attacking Nitish Kumar from August 2022 to December 2023 and the BJP state unit is not ready to compromise with him, but is believed to have come under pressure from the central leadership’s decision with 2024 in mind. Lok Sabha Elections. Bihar BJP leaders agreed to go with Nitish Kumar.
It is also believed that in 2020 itself, the Bharatiya Janata Party wanted to see Nitish Kumar as a weak Prime Minister, thus removing Sushil Kumar Modi, who is considered close to him, as the Deputy Prime Minister.
Two Deputy Chief Ministers were appointed then as well, but this time both the Deputy Chief Ministers – Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha – have been very aggressive towards Nitish Kumar and it is expected that Nitish Kumar will be involved. not being able to work independently. There will be many problems.
Although Nitish Kumar is considered to be very intelligent but many say that as he is getting older, his intelligence will not be of much use in future as BJP will be smarter this time.
It is not clear yet, but the Bharatiya Janata Party insists that it should have the Home Ministry this time. In 2020, Nitish Kumar’s party won only 43 seats in the assembly elections, even then Bharatiya Janata Party had developed a strategy to create pressure and demanded from the Home Ministry, but Nitish Kumar was not ready at that time. It will be interesting to see how Nitish Kumar reacts to this pressure this time.
from analysis and
Many political observers believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party will keep the pressure on Nitish Kumar and wait for the results of the first Lok Sabha elections. It is expected that the Bharatiya Janata Party will again succeed in forming the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. After that, BJP may try to make its chief minister in Bihar.
Two types of possibilities are represented. It is said that after the Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party will ask Nitish Kumar to resign and offer him a ministerial post at the Centre. If Nitish Kumar rejects the offer, the Bharatiya Janata Party will withdraw its support, in which case assembly elections could be held early.
A second possibility is that the Bharatiya Janata Party may contest Nitish Kumar in the 2025 assembly elections, but refrain from making him the face of the NDA in Bihar. Note that in 2020, the Janata Dal United was adamant that Nitish Kumar should be considered the face of the NDA. As the Bharatiya Janata Party’s state unit hopes to ditch Nitish Kumar’s support, Nitish Kumar is unlikely to be the face of the NDA in 2025 or the Prime Minister.
It is said that just as efforts were made to defeat Nitish Kumar’s party candidates by electing Chirag Paswan in 2020, a similar attempt may be made in the Lok Sabha elections.
First, this time JDU should not get bid for 17 seats like in 2019 and it should be forced to fight for 12-13 seats. It will be interesting to see how much Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to ensure that JDU candidates win these seats. With its history of backsliding, the Bharatiya Janata Party is also wary of reversing course after winning more seats.
In such a situation, the question arises what will be the fate of Janata Dal United? RJD leader and former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav said that JDU will cease its activities in 2024. He said there is still a game ahead in Bihar. The game he is talking about seems to have less chance as it would take two-thirds of its MLAs, i.e. 30, to break JDU’s 45 MLAs. Also, as in Madhya Pradesh, it is unlikely that he will force some JDU MLAs to resign and prove a majority with 114 MLAs and become the Chief Minister himself. For this, at least 15 JDU deputies should resign.
It is also said that a section of the JDU may join the Bharatiya Janata Party after the Lok Sabha elections. In such a situation, it will be difficult for Nitish Kumar to remain the Chief Minister, but it may be equally difficult for the BJP to crack 30 MLAs.
After the Lok Sabha elections, it is clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party will be no less interested than the RJD in toppling the Nitish Kumar government. It will be interesting to see what steps Nitish Kumar will take after being surrounded from all sides.