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Although Pakistan has gone through many crises, the current crisis between the parliament and the judiciary, the mutual impasse between the administration and the judiciary and the ongoing conflicts within the Supreme Court are quite unusual. The fact that there is a Parliament that thinks it is right to reject the Supreme Court’s decision, a Chief Justice who is not willing to listen to the words of the senior judges of the court, and a deteriorating economic situation on top of that is all. signs of this deep malaise, which generally faces the Pakistani state and now even the deep state does not seem safe from it. As is often said, new opportunities arise only from such crises. However, the current situation of insecurity does not seem to offer any opportunities as it is only a power struggle between elites.
In mid-April, a strong delegation of military officials briefed the Chief Justice and his Associate Justices on security threats and explained why the Punjab Assembly elections could not be held on 14 May. After that, in the last week, Chief Justice Umar Atta Bandyal somewhat backtracked from his position and ordered the political parties to resolve the issues through negotiations and report to the Supreme Court in this regard. The move is unusual because the courts that direct political actors to carry out case negotiations are a mildly expressed example of irregularities. That is what the dissenting judges on the bench have already said in their judgments that let the politicians settle their own cases and the judiciary needs to stay out of these issues.
While the Punjab elections remain uncertain, one important question that the Supreme Court has not addressed is why it is not as concerned about the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial elections. The Supreme Court also did not consider the questions raised by Justice Athar Munillah on why the provincial assemblies were dissolved before their term and whether the courts should support the implementation of such a political strategy.. Would it adversely affect the right of the people to keep an elected government in power?
The 90-day period stipulated in the constitution to hold elections has already passed. Another dangerous precedent is set by the intervention of the court and the reaction of the parliament and the military establishment that constitutional rules and regulations can be overridden on the basis of expediency.
For decades, the military establishment has continued its anti-political campaign in the country and now the military generals have come under fire for their self-made characters. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is not a traditional politician, as the establishment has now understood after eating a hundred shoes. The old scare tactics have failed and all analysis that the state would teach Imran Khan a lesson has been proven wrong. The divisions and splits within the deep state are at the heart of this earthquake.
Earlier, in a media briefing away from Parliament’s cameras, the army chief had discussed security concerns. The government immediately took full advantage of the opportunity to assert that the military establishment stood with parliament and the government over the government’s decision to postpone the provincial elections. These moves aside, there are some steps that the new military leadership must take immediately, especially at a time when former prime minister Imran Khan, his allies and some sections of civil society. Those who support Imran Khan, the institution of the army strongly challenged.
For decades, the military establishment has continued its anti-political campaign in the country and now the military generals have come under fire for their self-made characters. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is not a traditional politician, as the establishment has now understood after eating a hundred shoes. The old scare tactics have failed and all analysis that the state would teach Imran Khan a lesson has been proven wrong. The divisions and splits within the deep state are at the heart of this earthquake.
The term “deep state” is often used to describe an intelligence system that operates out of sight, with enormous power to make or break politicians, policies and movements. But the deep state of 2023 doesn’t just mean traditional drug addicts. It included serving and retired military officers, civilian and military intelligence officials, media figures who grew up under state surveillance that went out of control and apparently orchestrated by the establishment to fight “fifth generation warfare.” Includes the infrastructure for information psy-ops. The latter infrastructure has also changed course and is now operating independently and all efforts to control it over the past year have proved futile.
“Fifth generation warfare” is an obscure term first coined in 2003 to describe the “information and perception” battlefield, but the theory was soon challenged. Russian military officials bent on destroying democracy transformed this obscure doctrine into what we know today as “New Generation Warfare.” These Russian officials began using a combination of traditional and modern online warfare methods to achieve victory in the tactical arena. The only difference is that this “fifth generation warfare” in Pakistan has now fallen down the throats of its own creators. Retired army officers vilify the serving army chief and former defense analyst with access to the deep state is creating a narrative that various ranks of the army are unhappy with the military establishment’s decision to side with Imran Khan. In addition to this, the followers of Imran Khan make statements, create memes and release two numbers of videos daily, where there is a lot of anger against what is considered the strongest institution in Pakistan.
The same kind of abuse was seen last year when the judges opened the court at midnight and reached their chambers when Imran Khan was ousted by a motion of no confidence, along with the then army. Court preparations were also made to stop the dismissal of General Manager Bajwa. The photographs of the present Chief Justice and other judges were thrown by Pakistani youth living abroad. Pakistan-based PTI supporters also did not spare the judiciary and the army during their protests in April 2022.
But this streak of creating mayhem through propaganda is not limited to PTI alone. Leaders in the ruling coalition are also targeting a select list of judges, the chief justice himself and generals they consider rogue. The Pakistan People’s Party, which has probably suffered the most at the hands of the judiciary, the military and the right-wing media, must be surprised to see these new children of the anti-establishment.
All this chaos has been embedded in the political framework of the Pakistani nation as a whole, which was nevertheless not very strong. The ongoing elite battle over a populist figure has revealed the limits of Pakistan’s most famous institution of politics and cohesion, the Pakistan Army.
Even if the military establishment weathers this crisis as it did in 1971 and 2008, it must be doubly wary of the favorable public opinion that is so crucial to its monopoly on society. It is even more important for the economic system.
It doesn’t matter when the elections will be held or whether Imran Khan will come back to power or not. The latest experiment by a few self-righteous and adventurous generals has failed miserably. The only glimmer of hope in this chaos is that the military establishment may have realized that it needs to clean up the mess within the establishment first. But for 230 million Pakistanis, a failing economy and a broken political system are far more worrying than the institutional interests of the military establishment.
There is no possibility of early elections in Punjab. In fact, elections don’t even seem to be held in October. Pakistan’s ruling elite is in disarray, with factions within the judiciary and the deep state vying for power. The government wants the election to be held when the new chief justice takes office. Imran Khan and his supporters in powerful circles want early elections to ensure that Imran Khan can come to power as soon as possible. There are limits to what the military establishment can achieve under the current circumstances.
This battle may in the short term lead to the conclusion that the experiment of hybrid democracy that started after Pervez Musharraf’s tenure will come to an end. There must be a consensus between the state’s various institutions and political parties to hold elections. As we know, a long-term caretaker government made up of technocrats has long been considered an option. The situation that would arise from such a massive collapse of the “system” would be easier to deal with than a complete military takeover.
Are politicians capable of reading the writing on the wall?
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