The IMD says a normal monsoon is expected across India.
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday announced that the long-term average (LPA) of the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for agriculture in the country, is likely to remain generally normal with a quantitative forecast of 103%.
Normal monsoon rainfall is between 96% and 104% of LPA. IMD introduced a new LPA this April, replacing the 1961-2010 data, based on rainfall data for the southwest monsoon season from 1971-2020. LPA is 87 cm or 870 mm.
IMD Director General (Meteorology) Martyunjay Mohapatra said in a press conference, “In terms of quantity, the monsoon season (June-September) across the country is expected to be 103% of LPA with plus / minus. 4% error. ” .
Monsoon rainfall will be above normal in Central and South India (with more than 106% of LPA) while in the Northeast (with 96-106% of LPA in this region) and in Northwest India. Is likely to be higher than usual. With 92-108% of the region’s LPA).
The IMD also issued a forecast for the so-called monsoon core zone – which covers most rain-fed agricultural areas of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Odisha – which Said more than usual (more than 106%).
“Conditions in La Nina are expected to continue throughout the monsoon season. In addition, we are dependent on a dynamic system. Above surface temperature, etc. – the consensus is for general, but not 99%, but 103%, “Mohapatra explained of the revised quantitative forecast compared to what was announced. In April.
Conditions of La Nina are likely to prevail over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and negative Indian Dupole (IOD) conditions are likely to develop over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.
IOD is the difference in temperature between the western Indian Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina is associated with cooling in the Central and Eastern Pacific Oceans.